The Ten Most Likely FCS-over-FBS Upsets of 2026
· Yahoo Sports
FCS teams will play their FBS counterparts a whopping 125 times this fall and, as always, several of the subdivision’s teams could have their big brothers on the ropes. Several of the top tier teams hit the road early this year to take a swing at the big boys who are paying them handsomely to do it. A few will probably make them regret writing the checks this September. Of the games currently announced, these ten should be circled as possible upsets in the making:
10. West Georgia at Kennesaw State (September 5)
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Even though Kennesaw State put together their best FBS season last fall, winning ten games and taking home their first C-USA title, the Owls still could have their hands full to kick off this season as they welcome in West Georgia. The Wolves turned a lot of heads last season as they made some real noise in the UAC. UWG strung together an 8-3 record, losing only to ranked teams, and finished the year as the #22 ranked team. Now West Georgia will be led by former Presbyterian head coach Steve Englehart who impressed in his own right with the Blue Hose. It won’t be easy by any means but the Wolves could be a sleeper to pull off a Week 1 upset on the road.
9. Austin Peay at Vanderbilt (September 5)
Vanderbilt lost a lot from last year’s Top 15 team, most notably being quarterback Diego Pavia. The Commodores should still be solid this year but there are a lot of unknowns. That might not bode well as they begin their season with Austin Peay. The Governors are expected to be one of the better FCS teams in 2026 and will have a plethora of talent coming back. Those same Govs also beat the brakes off Middle Tennessee last season and actually put up a respectable fight against Georgia. There’s no telling what kind of trouble they could cause Vandy in early September this fall.
8. Southern Utah at Colorado State (September 12)
Colorado State has not been trending in the right direction for a few years now. The Rams came in last in the Mountain West a season ago and now with Jay Norvell out and Jim Mora in, CSU might take a while to get their feet under them. That means that Southern Utah should have a chance to make things interesting in Fort Collins come Week 2. The Thunderbirds have been on the cusp of being a playoff team for several seasons and 2026 might be the year they at last break through. Even with guys like Joshua Dye leaving, SUU had some big gets in the portal this offseason including former San Jose State running back Floyd Chalk IV and ex-UTSA signal caller Noah Lugo. The Rams are in for a battle in this one.
7. South Dakota State at Northwestern (September 5)
You can never count out teams like South Dakota State in games like this, especially against an opponent like Northwestern who has been up and down as of late. The Jackrabbits made the second round of the FCS playoffs last year and that was considered a down year. Now with Dan Jackson in his second season running the program and star quarterback Chase Mason returning, though, the ‘Jacks should be right back in the mix as a national title contender. SDSU has the roster to stay on the field with the Wildcats come September 5 and, if Northwestern isn’t careful, the Jackrabbits might just come out with a Big Ten scalp.
6. Illinois State at Northern Illinois (September 12)
Illinois State was the story of the year in the FCS last year, making an improbable run all the way to the national championship before falling just short in overtime. Several guys from that squad are coming back to the Redbirds this year including receiver Dylan Lord and the Niekamp brothers at linebacker. Even with QB Tommy Rittenhouse gone, ISU is going to be formidable again this year and their impressive road gauntlet in 2025 prepared them for their trip to Northern Illinois in Week 2. NIU, now members of the Mountain West, is coming off a 3-9 year and lost longtime head coach Thomas Hammock to the NFL. That all could be a recipe for a Redbirds upset.
5. New Hampshire at Syracuse (September 5)
New Hampshire has had a recent history of scaring FBS teams. Last year the Wildcats rolled in an pushed Ball State to the brink and this year they get to take on a Syracuse team that finished tied for last in the ACC in 2025. If the Orange don’t come out of the gates strong this year, UNH could give them a real run in the opener. With the addition of former Temple running back Joquez Smith to the lineup as well as the retention of standout defensive back Sean Webb, New Hampshire is again looking to be a playoff contender and what better way to make an early statement than to topple Syracuse.
4. Sacred Heart at UMass (September 12)
No FBS team has struggled recently quite like UMass. The Minutemen have not posted more than three wins since 2018 and went 0-12 last season. Part of that winless run included a loss to Bryant. This year their FCS game will feature a Sacred Heart team that’s significantly more talented than those Bulldogs were. The Pioneers won eight games three of their losses came against Top 25 opponents. With guys like quarterback Jack Snyder and 1,000-yard rusher Mitchell Summers coming back, SHU should be solid again. That might spell some real trouble for UMass as they are looking to avoid a falling to an FCS opponent for the second straight season.
3. Montana at Oregon State (September 19)
The Beavers might be playing with fire inviting Montana in Week 3. OSU had a dismal year in 2025, winning just two games and made a coaching change in the middle of their season. While it’s true that the Grizzlies are also in the midst of a regime switch, bidding longtime head coach Bobby Hauck farewell, UM should still have a fighting chance to come out of Corvallis with a win. The Griz bring back three of their best offensive stars including quarterback Keali’i Ah Yat, running back Eli Gillman and receiver Drew Deck. With that trio, Montana can never be counted out. This was a semifinal squad a season ago Oregon State is far from competitive right now as they begin a new Pac-12 era.
2. Tarleton State at Bowling Green (September 5)
Only four FCS teams pulled off upsets over their FBS brethren last fall and Tarleton State got arguably the biggest of them when they knocked off Army in West Point. This year the Texans don’t face a team nearly of that caliber as they are tasked with taking on Bowling Green in Week 1. The Falcons went 4-8 last year and didn’t look all that convincing against their lone FCS opponent (Lafayette). Todd Whitten’s TSU team, which reached the quarterfinals of the playoffs a season ago, is certainly capable of delivering in these sort of early games and it’s entirely possible that Bowling Green gets a little more than they bargained for in the season opener.
1. Montana State at Nevada (September 12)
The defending national champs have more than a fair shot to head into Reno in Week 2 and deliver an upset to the Wolfpack. In fact, Montana State may actually enter that showdown as the betting favorite to dispatch Nevada and it would make sense if they do. The Bobcats return most of the nucleus of last year’s team including standout signal caller Justin Lamson, both Taco and Caden Dowler as well as running back Adam Jones to name a few. MSU is just two years removed from knocking off another Mountain West foe in New Mexico and it certainly seems like the ‘Pack could be their next victim. There is also some interesting flavor in this game as Nevada head coach Jeff Choate coached at Montana State for four seasons from 2016 to 2019.