2026 Fantasy Baseball: 'Don't draft this pitcher — draft this one instead'

· Yahoo Sports

On Thursday, I focused solely on hitters in an article regarding players who are due to positive or negative regression. I’m going to turn my attention to pitchers today, as we look at points in the draft where drafters could make better decisions.

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[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]

After making just 35 starts across four seasons from 2021-24, deGrom blew away expectations when he produced outstanding ratios (2.97 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) across 30 starts last year. The 37-year-old should once again fare well on a per-start basis, but there are plenty of reasons to be worried about his durability when factoring in his age and lengthy injury history.

Bradish has similar durability concerns, as he is entering his first full season after having 2024 Tommy John surgery. But Bradish looked great in six starts last year, and in 44 starts across the past three seasons, he has recorded deGrom-like ratios (2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). I’m happy to wait two rounds and draft someone with a similar risk-reward profile.

Anyone who believes that they are going to get more than 25 starts from Glasnow is welcome to join one of my leagues and draft him. After all, through 10 major league seasons, the right-hander has yet to accomplish the feat. Glasnow’s career high of 134 innings from 2024 should be considered his ceiling, especially since he works for a Dodgers organization that cares much more about October availability than regular-season dominance. Glasnow should fare well over his 110-135 innings, but he no longer matches the strikeout rates of his prime years, and he cannot match the swing-and-miss skills of Burns, who struck out batters at a ridiculous 35.6% rate in his rookie year. Managers will get similar results by bypassing Glasnow and waiting a couple of rounds to draft Burns.

I don’t feel good about Ray this year. Sure, he racks up his share of strikeouts. But he can ruin a fantasy team’s WHIP (career 1.29), and he struggled after the 2025 All-Star break when he logged a 5.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 12 starts.

In a worst-case scenario, Flaherty will resemble Ray. But I see a better outcome for the Tigers right-hander, as he dealt with some bad luck last season and is just two years removed from a 2024 campaign in which he logged an impressive 3.17 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Add in the fact that Flaherty is being drafted later than Ray, and the choice becomes obvious.

Strider didn’t look like himself last season. His velocity took a sharp drop, which resulted in a mediocre 14.8% K-BB ratio. To put his decline in perspective, the right-hander logged K-BB ratios of 29.7% in 2022 and 29.2% in 2023. He hasn’t lit up the radar gun in spring training, and there is no reason to project a major turnaround.

Conversely, after years of teasing fantasy managers with dominant stretches, Gore finally has some things working in his favor. By virtue of his trade from Washington to Texas, the left-hander will enjoy major upgrades in terms of his home park and team defense. The 27-year-old has always been able to strike batters out and should now pair his strikeout contributions with solid ratios.

The decision to avoid Kelly has nothing to do with his minor back injury. The 37-year-old has worked through that ailment and should be ready for the first trip through the rotation or soon thereafter. Instead, this selection is based on Kelly’s mid-level ceiling. He has plenty of value in deeper formats, but in standard Yahoo setups, managers should be chasing late-round options that could have special seasons, rather than an aging starter with a career 3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 rate.

Cantillo has more interesting upside, after he logged a 2.96 ERA while striking out 72 batters over 67 innings as a starter last season. There are always plenty of reliable options on the Yahoo waiver wire that Cantillo managers can pivot to if he struggles to build on his 2025 success. Other late-round options with Cantillo-like upside include Andrew Painter, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weathers.

I could have shortened this one to “don’t draft Robert Suárez,” unless your league counts holds. Suárez is certainly capable of working the ninth inning, but that’s not the role he’s going to have at the outset of the season. Braves closer Raisel Iglesias is good enough to keep his job, which means that Suárez should be on the waiver wire in virtually every league. I would rather use my last pick on someone who may open the season as a closer, such as O’Brien, Brewers reliever Abner Uribe or Rays righty Griffin Jax. All of these hurlers have an upside that Suárez cannot match.

I would rather roster Miller than Smith, but not when the difference is three rounds of my draft. Smith is slightly younger than Miller and has slightly better career ratios across a similar innings total. The two pitchers have a similar level of dominance over the strike zone, and they play on teams that have similar projected win totals. Drafters can pair Smith with an ace like Cole Ragans, rather than pairing Miller with a No. 2 starter such as Nick Pivetta.

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