2026 Final Four, odds: Picking the championship game between UConn and Michigan

Michigan looks like a special team this season, but nobody will remember that if the Wolverines don’t win on Monday night.

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Michigan’s impressive run of blowouts continued with a shocking domination of Arizona in the Final Four on Saturday night. It ended as an 18-point win but it was much more than that. The Wolverines led by 30 in the second half before letting up. They’ve been blowing teams out like that since November, so maybe it shouldn’t have been such a big surprise.

But, like 2021 Gonzaga, it can all be forgotten if UConn wins on Monday night. That Gonzaga team started the season 31-0, then lost to Baylor in the national championship game. Nobody lists that Gonzaga season among the greatest in the sport, and few probably even remember the Bulldogs came that close to perfection. It’s all about what happens on the last Monday night of the season.

Tarris Reed Jr. and the Connecticut Huskies are vying for their third championship in three seasons. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)Jamie Schwaberow via Getty Images

Here’s the pick for the NCAA tournament championship game, with odds from BetMGM:

Michigan (-6.5) over UConn

The line for this game did get to 7.5 for a bit, but perhaps the injury concern about Yaxel Lendeborg pushed it back a bit.

Lendeborg was one of the best players in college basketball this season but he was injured in Saturday’s semifinal. He turned his ankle and also hurt his knee. He has a low-grade MCL sprain and small bone bruise, according to ESPN’s Pete Thamel. Lendeborg will almost certainly play — he was not listed as injured on the availability report — but will he be close to 100%? It’s impossible to know yet, which means Michigan bettors either have to assume one of the nation’s best players is close to healthy, or Michigan is so good they can win without him carrying his normal load.

And it’s reasonable to think Michigan can win and cover without Lendeborg being at full health. The Wolverines’ margins of victory have been 21, 23, 13, 33 and 18 points in this tournament. They beat a talented Tennessee team by more than 30 and led Arizona, clearly one of the three best teams all season, by 30. In the regular season they beat teams like Auburn, Gonzaga and UCLA by 30 or more. It’s an impressive team.

And UConn has its own injury question. Solo Ball didn’t practice Sunday due to a foot injury. The junior guard has been in a shooting slump for most of March, but he still averages 12.9 points per game and is a key to the Huskies. Like Lendeborg, Solo isn’t listed on the availability report and is likely to play, but UConn can’t afford to be at less than 100% against Michigan.

The argument for UConn to cover or even pull the upset is that it’s a good team itself and the program has a strong pedigree, having won championships in 2023 and 2024. UConn earned a No. 2 seed and if a team can beat Duke, as the Huskies did in the Elite Eight, it’s capable of beating anyone.

But a lot would have to go right. Tarris Reed Jr. has been fantastic in the tournament, but Michigan has the size to combat him and perhaps even get Reed in foul trouble. It’s hard to find an area in which UConn is unquestionably better than Michigan. Dan Hurley is a good coach and UConn has plenty of talent, but all of their strengths are negated by this Wolverines team. The one hope for UConn is that Lendeborg is far less than his normal self, which is possible.

But Monday night seems like Michigan’s coronation at the end of a fantastic season. History awaits the Wolverines.

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