NOAA Predicts Below-Average Hurricane Season: How Other Forecasts Compare
· Yahoo Sports
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2026 hurricane forecast on Thursday, predicting a below-average season for the Atlantic basin.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, and this year, NOAA is predicting a 55 percent chance it will be a below-average one. The agency forecasts that eight to 14 storms will be named and three to six of them will become hurricanes. NOAA adds that one to three of those hurricanes will be major ones, meaning category 3 or higher with winds of 111 mph or more.
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An average hurricane season has 14 named storms including seven hurricanes, with three becoming major storms.
Newsweek reached out to NOAA via email for additional comment.
In this NOAA handout image taken by the GOES satellite, Hurricane Ian whips toward Florida on September 28, 2022, in the Gulf of Mexico. (Photo by NOAA, via Getty Images)What To Know
In a post to X reacting to the NOAA forecast, the National Weather Service (NWS) in New Orleans cautioned that even in below-average years, “it only takes one storm to make it a bad season!”
“1965’s Hurricane Betsy devastated parts of SE Louisiana during a quieter year. Be prepared: https://weather.gov/safety/hurricane,” the post continued.
NOAA in its forecast added that there is a 35 percent chance for a near-normal season and 10 percent chance for an above- normal one.
📉 Below average hurricane activity is favored in the Atlantic this year, but even in quieter seasons it only takes one storm to make it a bad season!
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) May 21, 2026
👉 1965's Hurricane Betsy devastated parts of SE Louisiana during a quieter year.
Be prepared: https://t.co/blmt4VIlIDhttps://t.co/OAyKvP4M8U
The reason the agency is predicting a below-average season is due in part to “competing factors,” including El Niño development.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
Atlantic Ocean temperatures are poised to be slightly warmer, along with weaker than average trade winds. These conditions do support a more active year, but El Niño conditions favor less tropical development, the agency says in part.
NOAA’s seasonal outlook is based on climate and large-scale weather patterns. It does not show which portions of the country, if any, could be impacted.
What Other Forecasts Show
Colorado State University (CSU) released its outlook earlier and it predicts 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. “We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity,” the forecast said.
CSU highlighted the potential impact of El Niño, saying in part, “We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
AccuWeather released its outlook in April, predicting 11 to 16 named storms, with four to seven hurricanes and two to four major ones.
Three to five direct impacts on the U.S. this year are predicted by AccuWeather, according to its release.
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