America's child population is shrinking everywhere but the South
· Axios
America's child population fell by 1.8 million from 2020 to 2025 — with the under-18 population shrinking in every region but the South.
Why it matters: Most of America is preparing for fewer students and young families, while the South faces the opposite problem: crowded classrooms, new housing pressure and rising political stakes.
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The big picture: The South had 303,969 more children in 2025 than in 2020, according to new Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates reviewed by Axios.
- The West had the largest under-18 decline: down 1,015,068, or 5.7%.
- Overall, the South's total population grew 6% from 2020 to 2025 — nearly double the nation's 3.1% growth.
State of play: The South's overall growth reflects strong migration patterns that are adding children, people in prime family-building years and retirees — making it the only region gaining population across all five age groups tracked by the Census Bureau.
- The numbers deepen a larger post-pandemic trend: America's growth is moving outward, especially across the South.
Between the lines: This is not simply a story of children "moving" South.
- County-level population change reflects births, deaths and migration.
- The data does not, by itself, show how much of the under-18 growth came from families moving in versus children being born or retained in the region.
Zoom in: Southern metro counties more than accounted for the region's child population growth, offsetting losses in micro counties and rural areas, an Axios review found.
- Metro counties in the South added 361,757 residents under 18, a 1.5% increase.
- Meanwhile, Southern micro counties had 18,280 fewer children in 2025, down 0.7% from 2020. Southern counties outside metro and micro areas also had 39,508 fewer children, down 2.2%.
What we're watching: The South's child growth could give Black and Latino families more political and economic clout — but only if booming counties invest equitably in schools, housing, transit and health care.
The bottom line: Nationally, the population is getting older.
- The U.S. median age rose to 39.4 in July 2025, up from 38.6 in April 2020.
- The 65-and-older population grew 16.2% nationally from 2020 to 2025.
- Meanwhile, the under-18 population fell 2.4%.