Tennessee Football Preview 2026: College Football Playoff or Bust
· Yahoo Sports
Tennessee has to take advantage of the moment.
This is a superpower program with a wonderfully-mad fan base and all the pieces in place to be a regular in the College Football Playoff mix.
And it helps that this isn't the heyday of modern SEC football.
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The Football Time is Now at Tennessee
Tennessee running back DeSean Bishop (18) carries the ball during warm-ups at the 2025 Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., on Dec. 30, 2025.© Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Alabama is still amazing, but it's not Nick Saban's Crimson Tide.
Georgia has blinked just a wee bit, LSU, Auburn and Florida are starting over, Texas doesn't seem capable of having nice things, and Texas A&M and Oklahoma are still in the close-but-not-quite territory.
Tennessee has to pounce.
There are holes to fill, and the team overall has to be way tighter and more consistent, but it's a sneaky-talented team - as much as Tennessee can be - with a not-awful overall schedule.
And it has the head coach.
Head coach Josh Heupel has two double-digit win seasons in the last four years. Tennessee had one double-digit win season from 2005 until 2021.
Over the last four years, Tennessee has won 38 games. That's more than Auburn (21), Florida (23), LSU (36), Missouri (35), Oklahoma (32), and Texas A&M (31). Only Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas have won more among SEC teams.
Tennessee isn't some also-ran program. This is the year to establish that again.
- 2026 Tennessee Schedule Analysis
Tennessee Quick Hits
- Head Coach: Josh Heupel (6th year, 45-20; 9th year overall: 73-28)
- Best Case / Worst Case: Get to the College Football Playoff for the second time in three years/The first season under eight wins since 2021
- Key Player: Tyree Weathersby, EDGE Jr.
- 2025 Record: 8-5
- Biggest Question: Can a relatively young team get up to speed fast enough to make any noise in the SEC?
Tennessee Key 2025 Stats
- 1st Quarter Scoring: Tennessee 173, Opponents 59
- 4th Down Conversions: Tennessee 13-of-17 (77%), Opponents 13-of-25 (52%)
- Time of Possession: Opponents 32:51, Tennessee 27:09
Offense
The offense continues to be brilliant under Heupel and offensive coordinator Joey Halze.
Of course the talent matters, but it also helps that the coaches fit the players to the production.
Last year's Volunteer team finished No. 1 in the SEC in scoring, No. 7 in the nation in total offense, and it should all keep going - even if the starting 11 is still a work in progress.
What’s Working
Again, the system. Not to overdo this, but it does matter that Heupel has established a baseline of greatness at Tennessee with his offense. Don't take this for granted in any way.
The Vols finished 15th in the nation in total offense in 2024, 19th in 2023, and most memorably, No. 1 in that great 2022 season.
Even if this year's attack doesn't rock like it did last season, horseshoes and hand grenades - it'll be good enough.
The only real problem with DeSean Bishop is that he wasn't Dylan Sampson. Bishop is back after running for close to 1,100 yards with 16 touchdowns a year after backing up Sampson, who ran for close to 1,500 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2024.
Throw in Javin Gordon from Tulane to the mix, and with Daune Morris sure to get more work, and the ground game will be terrific.
The veteran receiving corps is underappreciated on a national scale. Deep threat Chris Brazell might be gone, but top target Braylon Staley is back after catching 68 passes, Mike Matthews is a great veteran on the outside, and Radarius Jackson and Joakim Dodson can handle the rest.
What Needs Work
There's some tweaking to do up front. Kentucky swooped in and took starting left tackle Lance Heard, and big backup tackle Bennett Warren left for Minnesota.
There isn't much of a concern with four starters back from last year, and tackle Ory Williams coming in from LSU, but the pass protection needs to be a bit better, and the overall depth is just a tad thin.
The quarterback situation needs time. Joey Aguilar is gone after his one great season, Nico Iamaleava is still out in UCLA, and the Vols are trying to figure out who their 2026 starting quarterback is.
Backup Jake Merklinger is battling for the UConn gig, and it's up to Vanderbilt transfer Ryan Staub, promising redshirt freshman Georgia McIntyre, and star recruit Faizon Brandon.
No matter who it is, the pressure will be on from the start.
As great as the Tennessee attack was and will be, the consistent ground game is a must.
The Vols went 6-0 when running for more than 160 yards, but none of the six went to a bowl game. They went 2-5 against everyone else.
It's not that the passing game can't pick up the slack; it's that the team works far better when the ground game is hammering for five yards per carry.
Player to Watch
Ory Williams, OT Soph.
A spot starter at LSU last season, he's still young, still improving, and there's a world of upside with his 6-8, 330-pound frame and toughness.
If he's a rock at right tackle, all the other parts up front will be fine.
© Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Defense
Jim Knowles keeps getting high-profile gigs.
He helped make Ohio State a national champion with his three seasons as the defensive coordinator. Last year he was with Penn State, and now he gets a bit of a rebuild at Tennessee.
The Vols haven't had a pass rushing issue in years, but it hasn't translated into enough production.
It's up to Knowles to get this group off the field on a more consistent basis.
What’s Working
Again with Knowles - players wanted to follow him. Penn State transfer Amare Campbell was a force last season with 103 tackles and three sacks. Along with his big 2024 season at North Carolina, he has 9.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss over the last two seasons.
The top three linebacker tacklers return with Edwin Spillman, Jeremiah Telander, and Arion Carter combining for 237 tackles last season.
The recent history of the pass rush. It took a hit with star transfer Chaz Coleman being medically unable to go, but the plays in the backfield will come from everywhere - at least if recent Vol defenses are any guide.
Jordan Norman from Tulane will be turned loose from a hybrid spot, and the tackles should be disruptive, too - Penn State's Xavier Gilliam will turn into a factor.
All of the pressure didn't always lead to stops, but the takeaways were there. They were more like a steady stream than a flood, but that was just fine.
No coaching staff will complain about generating two or more turnovers in nine games.
What Needs Work
Okay, the pass rush. It should be good, because Tennessee finds ways to gear up the edge rushers to live behind the line, but - with all due concern to his health and well-being - this was where Coleman was supposed to play a huge role.
There are good pass rushing prospects, but there isn't a ton of proven production to count on. This points to another issue.
The transfer portal losses were big. Corner Rickey Gibson going to Texas A&M and safety Boo Carter heading off to Colorado hurts, even though the Vols did a nice job getting defensive backs to come in.
Eight defensive linemen were lost through the portal, starting with Caleb Herring to South Carolina and Jordan Ross to LSU.
Third down stops. The pass rush should've made more of a difference, but the Vols had a tough time holding up. They allowed teams to convert 41% of their third down chances,
Tennessee was 4-0 when keeping teams under 40%.
Player to Watch
Tyree Weathersby, EDGE Jr.
No pressure, but with Coleman not able to go, the defense needs a steady pass rusher.
Weathersby made 24 tackles with a sack last season in a rotational role. Now he goes from backup player to the spotlight might-rock end.
Keys to the Season
- How fast and how solid will the quarterback situation be once the pecking order is revealed?
- Really, can the pass rush be great with a young and thin group of ends?
- The pass defense has to be better, and overall, the Vols have to keep opponents from moving the chains.
Player Who Needs To Shine
George MacIntyre, QB RFr.
All the ability in the world is there. He has 6-6 size and a great arm, but Faizon Brandon will be right there with a shot at taking the job as a true freshman.
As long as the starting quarterback throws for over 3,500 yards and is stretching the field, all will be fine.
Biggest Concern
The pass defense.
The numbers are always bad and misleading - most teams keep throwing to try to keep up the pace with the high-powered Tennessee offense. It would be nice to be a little tighter, especially if the pass rush is up to 2025 snuff.
The Vols allowed over 300 yards four times - and won three of them, only losing to Georgia in that overtime thriller - and gave up 60% or more completion rate in 11 of the 13 games.
Biggest Game
Texas, September 26
The schedule works out relatively well for an SEC school, but there isn't a week off after the conference season gets going.
Texas is the conference opener, and it's at home. With winnable games against Auburn and at Arkansas next, win, and there's a real shot at 6-0 before hosting Alabama.
By the way, the two super-orange schools haven't met since 1968. Texas is 2-1 all-time.
Transfer Portal
The Vols didn't go too crazy in the portal, probably because they didn't have to.
The returning team is already solid and sound, the recruiting class was fantastic, and there's enough talent in place to be a player.
The offense didn't need much more than depth, but the defensive side received plenty of instant help.
Best Signing
Xavier Gilliam, DT (Penn State)
Coleman was the big signing, but that unfortunately didn't work out.
Gilliam doesn't have the sure-thing NFL size at 6-2 and 305 pounds, but he's a starting talent with the strength to hold his own on the nose.
Biggest Loss
Lance Heard, OT (Kentucky)
The offensive front will be fine without him, but it's never a plus to lose a 6-6, 330-pound starting SEC left tackle.
Heard started every game last year, but now he'll be a key piece of the Kentucky line.
Other Names to Know
- Ory Williams, OT (LSU)
- Qua Moss, S (Kansas State)
- TJ Metcalf, S (Michigan)
CFN Season Prediction
The problem isn't Tennessee, it's the SEC and Tennessee's place in it.
It's a Josh Heupel-coached team, and so far with the Vols his guys rock every other year - seven wins, then 11, then nine, then ten, then eight - so it's possible everything clicks, and this is the third double-digit win season in 18 years, but it'll likely be a grind.
The stability is there roster-wise, but the quarterback play has to be amazing, the defense has to be a bit better, and a great start and positive momentum are a must.
CFN Prediction: 8-4
The Vols have a trip to Georgia Tech early and should be 3-0 before hosting Texas and Auburn. There can't be a misfire on the road at Arkansas, Alabama is still Alabama, and going to South Carolina will be far tougher than anyone will make it out to be.
However, missing Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss is great, and not having to play Florida or an improved Mississippi State isn't bad.
But the margin for error is razor-thin in the SEC.
At Texas A&M, LSU, at South Carolina, at Vanderbilt, Alabama, Texas. Tennessee can afford to lose two of those, but not three, and there can't be a blip against a Georgia Tech or Auburn.
By most standards, it'll be another very good year. It'll take a few breaks for this to be a great one.
Related: SEC Football Win Totals 2026: Spring Predictions for All 16 Teams