March and March have changed SA’s population projections
· Citizen
Repatriations, which followed anti-illegal immigration marches including those by protest group March and March, have changed population predictions for the year.
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South Africa’s population reached an estimated 63.52 million people at the middle of 2026, according to Statistics South Africa’s latest mid-year population estimates.
Migration on the rise… and then
Stats SA calculates net migration annually, running from July to June each year.
According to the report, in May and June 2026, several African countries began repatriating their citizens, the majority of whom were illegal migrants, while the South African government carried out its own deportations of undocumented foreign nationals.
The report noted that prior to June 2026, the model had assumed an upward trend in net migration since 2021.
That changed in the final two months of the measurement period.
Stats SA said the prevailing sentiment “would promote the decline in immigration from the SADC region into SA as well as the increase in the emigration of migrants (regular or irregular)” specifically for May and June.
Because the two months fell at the end of the annual cycle, the shift was enough to pull down the whole year’s net migration estimate for 2026, even though the broader five-year trend to 2026 still showed strong net inflows overall.
The report’s own migration tables show that Gauteng and Western Cape recorded the largest net inflows for the 2021-2026 period, at approximately 1,42 million and 500 093 people, respectively, while Eastern Cape, Limpopo, and Gauteng also saw the largest outflows of migrants to other provinces over the same period.
International migration into the black African population group was assessed at 919 607 for 2021-2026, down from 956,984 in the previous five-year period, according to the report’s migration assumptions table.
Net migration among the white population also declined, from 926,727 in 2016-2021 to 883,807 in 2021-2026.
The protests behind the numbers
Stats SA linked the shift directly to policy and public sentiment, pointing to “the enforcement of labour policies that prohibit the employment of undocumented workers in SA” and “civil protests and subsequent media attention” as drivers of the change.
The report referenced a media statement from Justice Minister Mmamoloko Kubayi, dated 13 July 2026, on the government’s “comprehensive approach in migration,” though it did not quote her directly.
The period coincided with a sustained anti-immigration campaign that included marches organised by the March and March movement, which set an informal 30 June deadline for undocumented migrants to leave the country.
Still a work in progress
The agency was careful to frame the figures as provisional.
It said “the intended impact of the enforcement of migration and employment policies is continually evolving,” and confirmed the estimates “will be revised based on updated data regarding repatriations and deportations occurring in SA over time” as new information becomes available.
Despite the late dip in net migration, Stats SA’s broader estimates showed the national population still grew at an annual rate of around 1,20% by 2026, supported by births that, despite declining, remained “well above the levels needed to replace the number of expected deaths.”