This season, we’re going to learn a lot more about Caleb Williams

· Yahoo Sports

Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

As Caleb Williams enters his third NFL season, there are two things we can say with certainty about the former No. 1 overall pick:

  • Williams is an incredible playmaker
  • Williams is an inconsistent passer

This season, we’re about to learn a lot more about Williams. Is he capable of turning the Chicago Bears into a Super Bowl contender? If you ask that question among longtime NFL observers, you’re likely to get a range of opinions. The talent is there, no doubt. Williams’ miraculous playoff touchdown pass against the Los Angeles Rams was arguably the most remarkable feat of the postseason.

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If the Bears hadn’t lost in overtime, due in part to an interception caused by a miscommunication between Williams and D.J. Moore, Williams’ fourth-down TD pass would be even more highly regarded. Still, it was another example of what makes Williams so intriguing.

But what also makes Williams a frustrating watch is his inaccuracy. In today’s NFL, where virtually every quarterback completes 60 percent of his passes, Williams ranked last among starters in completion percentage at 58.1.

Completion percentage isn’t everything. There are other metrics you can use to assess Williams. He ranked No. 17 in QBR, ahead of Jared Goff (No. 20) and Sam Darnold (No. 21). He ranked fifth in yards per completion (11.9). As analyst Warren Sharp noted, he has played extremely well when his team was trailing in the second half. Williams also led the Chicago Bears (11-6) to their first division title since 2018.

However, accuracy is one of the most valuable traits a quarterback can have. The ability to fit passes into tight windows in crucial situations separates good quarterbacks from great ones. According to some training camp reports, Williams has looked better in the offense. But we won’t get a true measure of that until the regular season.

What makes Williams’ throwing issues particularly alarming is that his competition percentage dropped from his rookie year, when it was 62.5. That was despite the Bears’ pass protection being vastly improved last year. Is Williams suffering from a mechanical issue, or is it his processing speed? Hard to tell.

In theory, Williams should benefit from his second year in Ben Johnson’s offense. Expectations are high. In a story by Mike Sando of The Athletic, Sando polls NFL executives and coaches about the league’s quarterbacks. In Sando’s survey, they rank quarterbacks and place them in tiers. Williams was named a Tier 2 quarterback, an improvement from Tier 3 last year.

In the story, a defensive coordinator wrote:

“He is a high 3 or low 2 with the ability to go either way, kind of like Josh Allen at (the same) point in his career,” he said. “He is an exciting player, definitely athletic. The good thing for him, just like Lamar (Jackson) and Josh (Allen) at this stage: It doesn’t look like the moment is too big for him.”

Williams will undoubtedly provide more exciting plays this season. Whether those plays will translate into him being a better quarterback is something we won’t know until later this season.

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