College football prediction market bets for Week 2: Edge in Arizona State-Texas A&M
· Yahoo Sports
College football‘s opening week gave prediction market traders on Kalshi and Polymarket plenty of fun, intense moments. Week 2 arrives with fresh injuries and shaky performances shaping the numbers.
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Kalshi and Polymarket have priced six games with noteworthy separation between favorite and underdog, but a few of those splits look wider than what showed up on the field last weekend. Here are picks on all six.
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Boston College over Rutgers
(College football) Boston College Eagles running back Evan Dickens (23) carries the ball against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the second half at Nippert Stadium.- Friday, September 11, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
- Kalshi: 40% RUT, 62% BC. Polymarket: 41% RUT, 60% BC
Both programs are 0-1 and desperate after ugly losses. Rutgers fell 37-21 at home to UMass, and quarterback Dylan Lonergan left that game in the fourth quarter with an injury that head coach Greg Schiano confirmed wasn’t performance-related. Lonergan’s status for a return to Chestnut Hill, the school he transferred away from last winter, remains unclear.
Boston College dropped its opener on the road to Cincinnati and needed a spark. The Red Bandanna Game falls on the 25th anniversary of 9/11 this year, a game both teams have circled since the schedule came out.
If Lonergan can’t go, backup AJ Surace faces a hostile crowd in just his second career appearance. Take Boston College at home.
Pick: 27-17, Boston College
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Missouri over Kansas
(College football) Missouri Tigers wide receiver Cayden Lee (19) dives for the pylon against the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions during the first half at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium.- Friday, September 11, 8:00 p.m. ET
- David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, Kansas
- Kalshi: 68% MIZZ, 33% KAN. Polymarket: 67% MIZZ, 34% KAN
Both teams are 1-0 and rolled through overmatched competition in Week 1, so the market split leans heavily on Missouri’s roster continuity. Quarterback Austin Simmons, an Ole Miss transfer, went 17 of 19 for 252 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in a 54-14 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Kansas counters with redshirt sophomore Isaiah Marshall, who looked sharp in his first career start, throwing for 246 yards and two scores on 14-of-19 passing in a 51-6 win over Long Island. Marshall now faces a Power Four defense for the first time, and this is Missouri’s first trip to Lawrence since 2005.
The Border War carries weight, and Kansas has the crowd, but Missouri’s defensive front and Simmons’ accuracy make the difference on the road.
Pick: 28-21, Missouri
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Oklahoma over Michigan
(College football) UTEP Miners quarterback EJ Colson Jr. (1) throws as Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman David Stone (0) chases.- Saturday, September 12, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan
- Kalshi: 68% OK, 32% MI. Polymarket: 68% OK, 33% MI
Michigan needed a 47-yard Hail Mary from Bryce Underwood to JJ Buchanan on the final play just to escape Western Michigan 13-12 at home. We all know how that came about. Underwood fumbled late with the game on the line, and the offense stalled for long stretches against a Mid-American Conference defense.
Oklahoma has its own issues up front, with starting center Jake Maikkula, left tackle Michael Fasusi and guard Ryan Fodje all banged up entering Week 2. Even so, the Sooners handled UTEP 51-0 in their opener.
Michigan’s offensive line struggles are the bigger concern after nearly losing to a 22.5-point underdog, and that instability travels into a road environment against a defense that already looked dominant once this season.
Pick: 31-16, Oklahoma
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Texas A&M over Arizona State
Aggies wide receiver Mario Craver (1) reacts prior to the game against the Florida Gators at Kyle Field.- Saturday, September 12, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
- Kalshi: 17% AZ ST, 84% TAMU. Polymarket: 16% AZ ST, 85% TAMU
Texas A&M is the right side here, but the huge market difference looks too wide once you dig into the film. The Aggies posted a shutout in their opener, holding Missouri State to 67 total yards, and quarterback Marcel Reed threw for two touchdowns in a comfortable win.
Arizona State counters with Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley, who put together one of the best debuts in the country: 387 passing yards and six touchdowns in a 70-7 win over Morgan State. Boley connected with three different receivers, each topping 100 yards. That kind of explosiveness doesn’t disappear against a better defense, even if the final score doesn’t reflect it.
Texas A&M’s defensive front should still win the game, but this one stays inside two scores longer than the market split suggests. The Sun Devils have a puncher’s chance and are worth a modest wager.
Pick: 30-27, Texas A&M
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Alabama over Kentucky
Crimson Tide defensive back Bray Hubbard (18) intercepts the ball against the Auburn Tigers.- Saturday, September 12, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Kroger Field, Lexington, Kentucky
- Kalshi: 79% BAMA, 22% KENT. Polymarket: 79% BAMA, 22% KENT
Alabama enters its first true road test of the season with sophomore quarterback Keelon Russell making his first career start away from Bryant-Denny Stadium. Russell led a 48-10 win over East Carolina in the opener, but noise and unfamiliar surroundings can shift a young passer’s rhythm.
Kentucky is riding momentum after one of the best coaching debuts in program history, as new head coach Will Stein guided the Wildcats to a 45-13 rout of Youngstown State. SEC Nation will be in Lexington, and Kroger Field is expected to be loud for the Stripe Out. Still, Alabama has beaten Kentucky in eight straight meetings, and the differences in overall roster talent remain significant even with Stein’s fast start.
Pick: 40-21, Alabama
Minnesota over Mississippi State
Minnesota Golden Gophers running back Darius Taylor (1) leaps against the New Mexico Lobos.- Saturday, September 12, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
- Kalshi: 52% MINN, 49% MS ST. Polymarket: 51% MINN, 50% MS ST
This is one of the tightest splits of the weekend, and for good reason. Mississippi State sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor put together one of the standout performances of Week 1, throwing for 354 yards and four touchdowns while adding a rushing score in a 62-13 win over Louisiana-Monroe. Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck said afterward that Taylor could become one of the best quarterbacks his program has ever faced.
Minnesota handled its own business in a 59-7 win over Eastern Illinois, but Mississippi State gets credit for beating an FBS opponent rather than an FCS team. Taylor’s ability to extend plays with his legs makes him difficult to contain, but Minnesota’s defense gets its first true test of the season at home, where the Golden Gophers have the edge in experience at the position with Drake Lindsey.
Pick: 37-24, Minnesota
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