This ocean pattern could push millions into hunger
· The South African
A weather pattern forming thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific Ocean is about to have consequences most people wouldn’t immediately connect to their dinner plate.
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The UN’s World Food Programme says the effects are already beginning to show, and they’re only expected to deepen from here.
WFP’s early analysis projects that this El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
how the numbers actually break down
The analysis focused on 45 countries already considered food insecure.
El Niño is expected to significantly influence rainfall, temperatures, and the occurrence of floods and droughts in these countries.
Across these countries, the total number of acutely food insecure people would rise from roughly 225 million to 274 million. That’s an increase of about 22%.
For context, the 2015-2016 El Niño impacted the food security of 60 to 100 million people globally.
This event, while still developing, is already being measured against one of the most severe on record.
where the impact is expected to hit hardest
WFP identified Central America and southern Africa as likely among the hardest-hit regions.
Southern African nations are considered particularly exposed.
So many households there depend on rain-fed subsistence farming, agriculture that has no buffer against a poor rainy season.
Latin America and the Caribbean could also see one of the sharpest rises in food insecurity.
More than 16 million people are expected to be affected there alone.
West and Central Africa, meanwhile, face a projected 12% increase, affecting nearly six million additional people.
WFP’s Acting Executive Director, Carl Skau, said the organisation was already ramping up preparedness in eight at-risk countries. He added that early action gives the best chance of protecting lives and livelihoods before a crisis takes hold.
The agency has already triggered anticipatory action plans in South Sudan, Chad, Mauritania, Uganda, Guatemala and El Salvador.
Together, these plans have provided more than $14 million in early support to roughly half a million people.
El Niño is expected to peak between September and December 2026.
Its effects on food security, though, are likely to linger well into 2027, largely because of how it disrupts future harvest cycles rather than just the immediate weather.
It’s easy to think of El Niño as some distant weather story, until you see it translated into a number like this one, hey. Nearly 50 million people is a genuinely staggering figure to attach to something as abstract as ocean temperatures thousands of kays away.
Did you know a weather pattern could have this kind of global reach?
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