Fantasy Football: So, which scoring output is real — Week 1's or Week 2's?

· Yahoo Sports

At least one of my sons has a soccer game on Sundays. If you happen to be in Southwest Ohio at a ball field in the afternoon, you'll hear me armchair-coaching kids or yelling at my phone while the Bengals play. My youngest's defensive prowess was my point of contention earlier today.

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That boy can use his size to redirect would-be scorers better than any 11-year-old. We (affectionately) call him a "Brick Wall." But his confidence pulls him farther up the field. Multiple times, he'd over-anticipate how a sequence would happen and find himself behind the play, huffing air, trying to catch up.

That was some of us earlier today on fantasy football Sunday. Top-scoring performances or "solid" workloads from Week 1 left us with the conviction that our lineups didn't need adjustments.

Then, Week 2 came. And after going through some of Sunday's storylines, we also need to play catch-up.

Week 1 Might've Been a Fluke … But Two Weeks?

It's fair to hold some level of skepticism after Week 1. That's especially true when the results don't jibe with our offseason narratives. However, for a few teams, a repeat performance should alleviate some of our doubts.

I'll admit that I'm not sure Tyler Shough snuck the ball over the goal line to take the lead. But the Saints found themselves in a similar situation. Their defense was allowing a successful play on over 35% of their snaps and a score on over half of their opponent's trips to the red zone. Second-half heroics were a must. And Shough's given New Orleans both hope and a win.

But a full game of solid play would be nice.

  • Passing Success Rate: 33.3% (First Half), 51.9% (Second Half)

  • EPA per Dropback: -0.28, 0.12 

  • Completion Percentage Over Expected: -6.6%, +10.2%

But think about his receiver corps. Chris Olave has the fifth-highest aDOT of any WR1 (min. 20% target share). Juwan Johnson has the same rank amongst his peers. Luckily, a third option has emerged.

Devaughn Vele now has back-to-back games with seven or more targets. As the team's leading slot receiver (49.6% slot rate), Vele works in the short area of the field (8.6-yard aDOT). With half of his receptions turning into first downs or a score, Vele should be in the weekly WR3 discussion, and Shough is a primary streaming candidate moving forward.

Geno Smith might be joining the same conversation.

To be fair, let's consider what we thought about the Jets over the summer. They had the third-fewest skill players drafted within the top 100. Smith himself was the QB28. But in two weeks, admittedly, against weaker defenses, their production totals are up.

  • Yards per Game: 326.0 (2026), 263.6 (2025)

  • EPA per Play: -0.05, -0.15

  • Offensive PPG: 20.0, 15.9

Garrett Wilson has a floor of seven targets per week and is three TDs away from tying his '25 total. Breece Hall is one of seven RBs with top-12 marks in totes and targets. And Adonai Mitchell's 56.5% air-yard share gives him some FLEX appeal. So, with OC Frank Reich calling plays, trips to Detroit and Chicago should keep us interested in the Jets' offensive options.

Now, let's play a game of "Guess That QB."

  • Passing Success Rate: 12th (out of 32 qualifiers – min. 24 dropbacks)

  • EPA per Dropback: 16th 

  • QB Rushing Rate: 16th 

After two weeks, this QB has more passing yards than Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye and Justin Herbert. And he's averaging just one fewer yard per game as a runner than Jalen Hurts. I'm willing to bet you'll find him on the wire in your league. But his name will have you thinking (hoping?) the last two weeks have been a fluke.

Pending MNF, Deshaun Watson is the QB12 on the season. But let's assume you're banking on his downfall. And only one of the players attached to him has any value. Well, the guy who ran into the end zone after Watson's pass should already be on our radar.

Denzel Boston has secured over 50% of the Browns' air yards in both games as a rookie. Between Boston and KC Concepcion (22.7% and 20.0% target rates), the freshmen in Cleveland have taken over the passing game. Accordingly, both deserve roster spots should a QB change happen at some point during the season.

And for this last team, I'm honestly at a loss for words.

The Raiders, without Brock Bowers, being undefeated, and the Chargers sitting at 0-2, defies logic. I'll talk through L.A.'s bizarre start to '26 on Wednesday, but the more confusing part on the Vegas side is who to roster.

  • Michael Mayer: 24.1% (Week 1 target rate), 13.8% (Week 2)

  • Tre Tucker: 13.8%, 24.1%

  • Jalen Nailor: 17.2%, 10.3%

  • Jack Bech: 13.8%, 6.9%

  • Cody White: 3.4%, 6.9%

A third of Kirk Cousins' passing TDs have gone to a guy with three targets across two games. Nailor and Tucker are the only pass-catchers with more than three looks in both contests.

The only one we can trust is No. 2. Ashton Jeanty is one of 13 RBs with more than 70% of his team's carries. Of that same subset, Jeanty's one of five with double-digit targets. He's already the workhorse we expected him to be. But with the playcaller and QB situation under control, his situation is starting to match his talent.

Let's go back to the Falcons' season opener. Cooper Rush had to start, but 15 of his 22 passes went to either Bijan Robinson (10) or Drake London (5). It wasn't great for London, but we could work with the distribution. But again, our Week 1 confidence was misplaced.

Rush turned the ball over two more times before taking a seat on the bench. On the bright side, London and Robinson were Rush's top options again. The two combined for 53.4% of the attempts. But when your best drive results in a field goal and just two plays on third and fourth down result in a new series, Atlanta at least had the right process for trying their UDFA rookie QB Jack Strand in favor of Rush. The results didn't agree.

Two things about our first foray into the Strand Experience. First, the Falcons generated just 91 yards of offense and three first downs in the third quarter. Afterward, they waved the white flag and pulled the starters. But even during that time, Strand only attempted four passes at 2.0 air yards per attempt.

Atlanta's schedule does have favorable matchups (at Packers, at Saints, at Ravens, vs. Bears), but its offense has been unable to sustain drives. And until Michael Penix Jr. returns, we shouldn't expect to see London or Robinson in the top 12 at their positions. 

OK, so I leaned into Baker Mayfield's "revenge game" narrative as a means to boost my excitement for Emeka Egbuka against the Browns. The result was an unmitigated disaster. But Tampa's 0-2 start to the season highlights how we (read: I) can't be too strong in our convictions.

I took the Jaguars' approach to dismantling Cleveland's defense and pattern-matched it to the Bucs. Sure, Jacksonville has younger talent. But, at least on the surface, the skill sets line up. 

Each has a strong outside receiver, route runners who can win on the interior and perimeter and a serviceable TE. Tampa even gets the slight edge as its RB can operate in the passing game. Mayfield's handling of the offense looked primed to take on his old team, assuming the turnovers were one-week blips. But that was the only aspect of his game that carried over to Week 2.

  • Passing aDOT: 4.5 (Week 1), 12.3 (Week 2)

  • Avg. Time to Throw: 2.79, 3.08

  • Passing Success Rate: 50.0%, 32.4%

The game plan, or Mayfield's reaction to Cleveland's opposing strategy, runs in direct contrast to what we saw against my Bengals. Folks will point to his 36.1% pressure rate and blame his protection. But I'd point to the fact that just five of his 13 pressures came in 2.5 seconds or less. Instead of relying on his receivers (7.4 YAC per completion against Cincinnati), the onus was on his shoulders (4.1).

That's where Egbuka managers should take issue. Because their (and Mayfield's) WR was out on the field for even more routes this week (92.5% snap rate). He even played in the slot more often. But the first pass of the game was a deep shot to Ted Hurst. Mayfield had 13 attempts of 15 air yards or more against his old team. He made three similar attempts the prior week.  

Bucky Irving managers should be happy seeing their RB with 20-plus touches. Egbuka was at least second in the WR pecking order. But the ups and (mostly) downs of their QB should be our bigger concern after today.

You've seen or heard the news about Jayden Daniels' elbow. I saw it in real time. It was a brutal sequence leading up to the catastrophic blow to Washington's QB1, ending the first half. But there were some positives to seeing Marcus Mariota again. 

I'm calling Mariota's pass to Dyami Brown a TD.

Anyway, at least on paper, the veteran held up well! Mariota posted similar completion rates (64.7% - Daniels to 68.8% - Mariota), didn't take any sacks, and attacked the Cowboys' secondary (10.4 aDOT to 10.1). Outside of a win, that's what you'd want out of your backup. But the talent gap will be on full display next week.

Daniels' mobility is his superpower. Three of the seven times the Cowboys pressured him, he left Dallas defenders in the dust for two first downs. Mariota doesn't have the same wiggle in his game anymore. He ranked 30th in passing success rate when under duress as the starter in '25.

Terry McLaurin might continue to lead or be close to the top of the food chain for the Commanders in targets or air yards. He just did it in the second half after Mariota took over. But the catch rates for every other pass-catcher (all of whom had shorter aDOTs) were better. Accordingly, I'd be more inclined to hold on to Stefon Diggs and Rachaad White until we hear more on Daniels' status.

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