Why Florida Republicans are "white-knuckled" about Tuesday

Florida Republicans aren't panicking about sluggish turnout for the midterms, but in the words of one GOP elder: "We're white-knuckled."

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Why it matters: Florida once looked like a much safer Republican bet for the midterms. Losing any statewide race would stun and embarrass its elite Republican residents, starting with President Trump.

• "I don't necessarily want to be the bearer of bad news, but I don't think the turnout is as strong as we would like to see," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fretted last week.
• The biggest GOP concern is U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds' campaign for governor, though most polls show him narrowly leading Democrat David Jolly.
• Donalds has raised $176 million; Jolly just $28 million.

Zoom in: The GOP's jitters are rooted in early turnout data.

• Republicans led Democrats in early ballots cast by just 2.8 percentage points as of Saturday afternoon. That's much lower than in the past two general elections — and it's despite a much-bigger Republican registration advantage over Democrats: 11 points.
• Republican turnout is weakest in parts of the conservative Panhandle and rural North Florida, including many of the 17 counties Donalds lost in the Republican primary.
• In those 17 counties, GOP turnout is 3.2 points below 2022, compared with 1.1 points below in counties that Donalds won, University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald found.

Between the lines: Republican turnout is made up of more habitual voters, while Democrats and independents are banking ballots from people who don't always show up. That could benefit Jolly if polls underestimate those voters.

• Democrats already have surpassed their entire 2022 early and mail-in vote totals in 15 counties, compared with four counties for Republicans.
• Nearly every poll shows independent voters favoring Democrats by double digits, so Republicans need a heavy turnout advantage.

About two-thirds of Florida voters typically cast ballots before Election Day, making the early and absentee margins critical.

• Among voters who waited until Election Day in 2022, roughly 60,000 more Republicans than Democrats have already voted this year, Democratic strategist Steve Schale found.
• That means some voters Republicans rely on for their Election Day surge in 2022 have already cast ballots — potentially shrinking their usual Tuesday advantage.

The big picture: Donalds could enter Election Day down by as many as 500,000 votes, according to internal Democratic and GOP estimates shared with Axios.

• To overcome that deficit, Donalds could need to win the Election Day vote by a 2:1 ratio. It's a tall order, but Republicans have delivered huge Election Day margins before, notably in 2022.

By the numbers: Black and Hispanic voters, who are leaning more toward Democrats this year in Florida polling, are making up a growing share of the early electorate, accounting for a larger share of newly reported ballots.

• Across racial and ethnic groups, Democrats are voting at higher rates than Republicans. Among active Democrats, 50% of white voters, 39% of Black voters and 34% of Hispanic voters have cast ballots, compared with 35%, 21% and 28% of Republicans in those groups.
• Young voters show another substantial gap: 25% of active registered Democrats under 30 have voted, compared with just 9% of Republicans.

Yes, but: Florida Republicans still outnumber Democrats by 1.5 million, with a larger pool of reliable voters.

• Florida's GOP is better funded and organized than the state's Democratic Party.
• Even in 2018, when a blue wave flooded the nation, Florida's red wall held. By razor-thin margins, DeSantis won the governor's race and then-Gov. Rick Scott was elected to the Senate.
• "We always win Election Day, and we know how to do this," state GOP chair Evan Power said. "A lot of the nerves here are because the last time we had a close election was eight years ago, and people forgot what a close election looks like here."

Zoom out: Republicans face a different political climate than in 2018, when Trump was ascendant in the GOP and the economy was improving. Today, Trump's approval with Republicans is lower and gas prices are higher.

• Republicans worry they could lose 10 to 15 state House seats, jeopardizing their supermajority.
• In Miami's 27th Congressional District, voting patterns are flashing warning signs for Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in her race against Democrat Eliot Rodriguez.
• As for the three statewide Florida Cabinet posts (attorney general, chief financial officer, agriculture commissioner), "no one should feel safe, but there's reason to feel OK," said a Republican involved one of the races.

Nationwide, the atmosphere is so bad for the GOP that Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio and even South Carolina look in play.

Behind the scenes: The early voting data sent a chill through Republican ranks in Tallahassee last week: What if the polling assumptions about stronger Republican turnout were wrong?

• "Just a few weeks ago I didn't think I would be feeling like this," a top consultant for one of the statewide races said. "It's not panic. At least not yet."
• Republicans remain more confident about Sen. Ashley Moody's race against state Rep. Angie Nixon, who's widely seen as too progressive for the red state's voters.

Friction point: Republicans have quietly fretted that racism could hurt Donalds just as it may hurt Nixon. Donalds and Nixon are Black.

• "We're about to run the biggest experiment to see how racist some of our voters are," a longtime Republican consultant said, calling the counties Donalds lost "more culturally Confederate" than the rest of Florida.
• "During the primary, he underperformed in the Panhandle and if people think skin color didn't play a role in that, they are naive," MAGA influencer Laura Loomer posted Saturday on X.

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