Three takeaways from Northwestern’s collapse in Eugene

· Yahoo Sports

EUGENE, OR - OCTOBER 31: Oregon Ducks wide receiver Jalen Lott (10) leaps for a pass against Northwestern Wildcats defensive back Montae Pate (4) during a college football game between the Oregon Ducks and Northwestern Wildcats on October 31, 2026 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

This was such a winnable football game. And that’s what stings so much.

This wasn’t the type of game familiar to so many Northwestern fans — like when the 5-0 2015 ‘Cats suffered back-to-back 30-point losses to No. 18 Michigan State and No. 17 Iowa, or when the No. 18-ranked 2000 ’Cats were bashed 66-17 in the Alamo Bowl by No. 9 Nebraska. It wasn’t a game where a hopeful Wildcat team went on the road for a prove-it game against a top team just to get knocked on its back.

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Rather, David Braun’s squad affirmed in a lot of ways what Northwestern fans have been cautious about believing all season long: that this is a great football team. On the road, against Oregon — a certified college football juggernaut, no matter the struggles it is having this season — the ‘Cats jumped out to a 20-6 first-half lead and were FLYING on both side of the ball. Aidan Chiles, Griffin Wilde and Chip Kelly’s offense scored on each of its first four possessions and looked unstoppable, while the defense held Oregon to just 83 total yards on its first three drives.

And then, that all disappeared. NU averaged just 4.5 yards per play the rest of the game, well below its 6.5 season average, and got rattled on the back end by Dylan Raiola and the Ducks’ receiving cast. And, before we knew it, the game had slipped from the ‘Cats’ paws.

Here are three takeaways from Northwestern’s heartbreaking 34-26 Halloween loss in Eugene:

1. The secondary has to get healthy

Back in September, it was injuries in the secondary that cost Northwestern a victory on the road over then-No. 5 Indiana. Backup defensive backs Ore Adeyi and Montae Pate were targeted by Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti throughout the evening, while also failing their assignments multiple times in run defense.

On Saturday, it was persisting sub-par health in this unit that, once again, contributed in a big way to a Northwestern Big Ten road loss.

Though the ‘Cats have gotten back starting DBs Braden Turner and Damon Walters in recent weeks, they were still without 2025 All-Big Ten Honorable Mention cornerback Josh Fussell and 2025 All-Big Ten Second-Team safety Robert Fitzgerald against Oregon. It didn’t help that junior safety Jon Jon Stevens, who has stepped up throughout the season in the ‘Cats’ secondary to fill the holes left by injured players, was carted off the field with an injury in the third quarter and soon after ruled out for the rest of the game.

In the game’s final 32 minutes, Northwestern’s ailing secondary had no answer for Oregon’s passing attack. Raiola aired the pigskin out for 274 yards in this time, besting the full-game passing totals he had posted in four of his five other starts this season. Including a 17-yard touchdown pass to Jamari Johnson and a 75-yard touchdown pass to Dakorien Moore, the Ducks routed the ‘Cats for 10 passing gains of 15 or more yards — all of which came in the game’s final three quarters.

Additionally, an NU backup in the secondary, Brenden Deasfernandes, committed a critical pass interference penalty on an Oregon third-and-4 at the start of the fourth quarter, setting the Ducks up at the goal line for their go-ahead touchdown score. Though the penalty was controversial, if NU had one of its premier safeties in coverage, the flag may have never even been given a chance to be thrown.

To stay competitive as the season goes on, NU’s secondary needs to heal up.

2. Third-and-longs kill

In the early going against Oregon, it felt like Northwestern’s offense was really rolling.

The ‘Cats’ opening four drives ended in two field goals and two touchdowns, as Chip Kelly’s offense rolled at a clip of nearly seven yards per play. They dug themselves into holes, but climbed their way back out of them, going 3-for-3 on third downs where it had over five yards to gain. Early on, Chiles was spectacular on these critical third-and-longs, using his legs once and finding Wilde twice to move the sticks.

However, this was all unsustainable, and at a certain point, the ‘Cats’ third-down magic ran out.

Northwestern couldn’t stay out of third-and-long and it couldn’t sustain playmaking on these downs as the game went on. After its hot 100% start converting third-and-longs, Northwestern finished 1-for-7 in such situations, with the lone conversion coming on a heroic 14-yard Chiles run on a third-and-9. These plays marked the end of six of the ‘Cats’ final nine drives, and each of their final five.

However, it’s important to emphasize that the problem is here was not Northwestern’s 36.3% conversion rate in these circumstances. For context, the ‘Cats have only converted 45.5% of their third downs the entire season, many of which have been in much shorter yardage scenarios.

Rather, the issue was that Northwestern constantly landed itself in these third-and-long holes by not getting enough yardage in early downs. The whole game, really, NU’s offense didn’t have a consistent rhythm, and it may have in part been due to a change in strategy. On first and second downs on Saturday, despite there not being a need for major temporal urgency, Chiles dropped back to throw the ball 39.2% of the time, which marked a departure from Northwestern’s typical 56.6% rush rate (the percentage of a team’s plays that are runs). Granted, I’m counting a handful of Chiles scrambles as dropbacks, which would show up as runs in the run rate statistic, but still, NU elected to throw the ball on early downs more than normal and it didn’t work out for it.

The bottom line is that offenses thrive when they stay in manageable situations. Just last week against Rutgers, when NU posted 42 points, its second-highest total of the season, the ‘Cats only found themselves in five third-and-long scenarios the entire game, one of which came on their final drive when the reserves were in and the game was already iced away. Two weeks before that, when it routed Ball State for 45, its high score of the year, NU had just four of such downs, converting two of them.

Third-and-longs kill, and Northwestern has to get back to staying out of those situations if it wants to get back to soaring offensively.

3. The ‘Cats can win every game on the rest of their schedule

However, as I emphasized in the opening of this article, this game also reaffirmed to me that the ‘Cats can compete with anybody.

In the first thirty minutes of game time, Northwestern was miles better than the Ducks. It was able to pass the ball efficiently downfield and stuff Oregon’s rushing attack. And, despite the second half collapse, the team’s identity remained intact throughout the game. The explosive plays which have defined this football team all season long were still there.

Brayden Brus made an electric open-field strip tackle of Oregon’s Moore in the third quarter, giving Northwestern the game’s only takeaway. Chiles got out in open space scrambling, averaging 6.6 yards per carry on 14 attempts with a 24-yard longest carry. And, of course, there was social media’s favorite play: Chiles and Wilde’s 64-yard pitch-and-catch, after Kelly moved three players pre-snap to positioning behind the tight end in tight formation, before blitzing Oregon’s secondary with a flurry of posts and corners.

Northwestern’s schedule the rest of the way is a gauntlet — there’s no denying that. But after NU’s performance against Oregon on the road, I believe more than ever that Northwestern belongs in discussions regarding the best teams in the Big Ten. It deserves the buzz it was getting, and will continue to get, surrounding its College Football Playoff chances. Because, at the end of the day, had a few more plays gone the ‘Cats’ way — whether it be the bounces of the football on a couple of Oregon’s early-game fumbles or the whistle on the controversial late-game pass interference penalty called on Deasfernandes — Northwestern could very well have won that game.

And, it very well could beat Iowa, Ohio State (I mean USC just did) and Minnesota. They’ll just have to take things one game at a time.

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