US Midterm Election Results: India Faces Fresh Trump Tariff Pressure And Diplomatic Challenges Amid Shifting US-China Relations
· Free Press Journal
India’s strategic community are still analysing the fallout of the results of the recent US mid-term elections for the country. The sweep by the Democratic party in both the House and Senate has led some to voice optimism that a check may be put on President Trump, who has been putting pressure on New Delhi ever since he began his second term in office. Other senior diplomats do not share this outlook. Pointing out that Congress has limited authority to check the president on both war and tariffs, many believe that India should brace itself for a tumultuous two years of Trump.
Former ambassador Mohan Kumar believes that the mid-term election result is not good news for India. “The mid-terms do not leave us better; in fact, they leave us marginally worse,” he says, stating that US political history has shown that US presidents who lost the mid-terms had tended to become “more adventurous” in the foreign policy sphere afterwards. “George Bush lost both the House and Senate in the midterms, but that did not stop him from sending 20,000 American soldiers to Iraq,” he points out.
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'India-US Relations Unlikely To Be Affected By US Midterm Election Results,' Says MEA Spokesperson Randhir JaiswalKumar adds that Trump is not likely to change the way he approaches trade deals. “He (Trump) never consulted the Congress on all the trade deals that he has been negotiating or has negotiated with countries,” says Kumar. “So, there’s no reason why he should now go back to them now, and frankly, the Congress never objected (to the deals he struck).”
On the economic front, Congress so far has shown no inclination to stop investigations into Indian exports. On March 11 this year, the US Trade Representative (USTR) launched a Section 301 investigation into Indian exports to the US, and the results of the investigation will be received in March 2027, after which the USTR will determine whether US trade laws have been breached. This could then lead to action in the form of tariffs.
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The main challenge for New Delhi is to attract the attention of the US. Electoral issues such as cost of living, healthcare and immigration will be the main agenda of Congress. Former diplomats say that investigations and the launch of subpoenas are most likely to occupy the Democrats’ agenda, as the recent bid to impeach US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth suggests. Political gridlock will become the norm, especially in the near to mid-term, and New Delhi will have to lobby hard to make itself heard in the corridors of power in Washington.
Former Indian ambassador to the US Meera Shankar believes that India will have to adopt a wait-and-see position to see what the priorities of the new Congress will be when the Democrats take over in January. “India is not uppermost in the minds of US voters, and the Congress’ priorities are likely to remain on Iran, Israel and Ukraine, which will be their priorities in terms of foreign policy.” But while that may be true, Shankar cautions that New Delhi should expect increased pressure from Washington.
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Diplomats also believe that India must prepare for the fact that the US may now start to view it differently. So far the relationship was cemented by the fact that both countries sought to create an “Asian balance” which was sustainable and not Chinese dominated. President Trump’s outreach towards Beijing and proposed meeting of Trump, Xi and Putin on the sidelines of the upcoming APEC summit being held in Shenzen may shift that calculus.
“Trump’s new approach towards China has resulted in both leaders (Trump and Xi) defining the relationship as a ‘constructive relationship of strategic stability.’ This phrasing shows that China becomes a priority. Where this leaves India, we don't know,” says Shankar. She adds that New Delhi should also take note of recent statements and actions made by US officials regarding the relationship.
India-US Trade Deal Talks Likely To Continue Despite Republican Midterm Setback“There is a greater reluctance to share technology, and we have the statement by the US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau at the Raisina Dialogue, where he said openly, ‘The US is not about to make the same mistake with India that it made with China.”
While most strategic experts agree that the challenges to the India-US relationship are high, especially in the last two years of Trump’s term, they also point out that New Delhi also has some cards, albeit limited, which it can use as leverage. India’s capacity for refining US oil through the Jamnagar refinery can become a key card to play as energy costs rise. India’s pharmaceutical exports to the US could be another card, but such a tool has limited efficacy, as there will be the imminent threat of retaliation.
Diplomats counsel the best thing New Delhi can do given its limited options is to run down the clock. However, that does not mean remaining idle. Kumar outlines two tracks by which he believes should operate going forward. “I find the appointment of Stephen Miller important because he was the architect of the tariff policy and the immigration policy. Miller accompanied President Trump on his trip to India when he came here,” Kumar says. “I think the Indian government and our embassy should do everything possible to keep in touch with him because he’s going to be an important actor.”
The other track Kumar believes is something the India PAC and the Indian embassy need to work on right away. “There are many young people in the Congress and the Senate; I suspect many of them may not even have come to India or travelled to India, so we will have to start all over again to work on them. We need to get to work on this right away.”