Super Bowl or Super Bust? The case for and against Bills vs. Rams in Super Bowl 61
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Although buzz around the Rams has quieted after they started 1-2 with losses to the 49ers and Broncos, they're still favored to win a ring for the second time in six seasons under Sean McVay with Matthew Stafford at QB. Like Super Bowl 56, Super Bowl 61 also is in L.A.
The Bills are trying to make their first Super Bowl while quarterbacked by their own one-time MVP quarterback, Josh Allen. The duel between Allen and Stafford is Monday's marquee matchup, but for either QB to also play in Los Angeles on Sunday, Feb. 14, they will need a lot of help from the rest of their teams.
There's a much better chance neither the Bills nor Rams make it to Super Bowl 61 than both playing in the game. Here's a breakdown of why Buffalo and Los Angeles each will or won't get there for a potential rematch.
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Why the Bills will play in Super Bowl 61
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level again
Allen is on the board as a favorite to match his 2024 award. Given how much he does for the offense every season as a top all-around QB, he will remain in the conversation. There are fewer dominant forces who can take over a game like he does, with either his arm or legs, or often both. The former Wyoming Cowboy is the ultimate combination of gunslinger and wild stallion.
Under offensive coordinator-turned-head coach Joe Brady, Allen's game has improved because he's more efficient with his big playmaking and more accurate than he's ever been.
Their dominant overall running game
Maybe one reason Allen didn't repeat as MVP was the fact the Bills fielded the NFL's rushing champion in the backfield with him. James Cook also has thrived with Brady calling on him to run often and is coming off a season in which he posted a league-high 1,621 rushing yards while averaging a spectacular 5.2 yards per carry.
Through four games in 2026, Cook has upped that to 6.0 yards per carry. His average of 105.3 rushing yards per game has him on pace to finish with 1,789 rushing yards. The Bills' physical and athletic blocking on the offensive line continues to be a huge asset. The combined running of Cook and Allen benefits both players' production. Staying balanced and explosive is a big part of the Super Bowl offensive formula.
They keep getting big pass plays
The Bills are averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt with Allen, No. 3 in the NFL behind the 49ers and Ravens. They are also averaging 13.2 yards per reception as a team, trailing only the Ravens.
Adding D.J. Moore at wide receiver has been key, but Brady has also pushed the entire offense to be more vertical, playing off the run. Tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receiver Keon Coleman have been used well to help stretch the field. Allen's big arm is being used to full effect with those often game-changing downfield connections.
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Why the Bills won't play in Super Bowl 61
They don't get more respectable in pass defense
The Bills are No. 27 against the pass, allowing an average of 256.3 yards per game. Quarterbacks have been efficient as a whole against them, posting a cumulative 102.9 passer rating. They have allowed 10 touchdown passes in the first four games and have countered with only two interceptions.
Buffalo is having major issues in its secondary and linebacker coverage. The Bills have been burned all over the field and often deep, which factored into the tough Week 4 home loss to Drake Maye and the Patriots. In their first two wins, the Texans' C.J. Stroud and the Lions' Jared Goff picked the Bills apart all over the field. The better teams in the AFC have better passing games, which can be a huge obstacle in the playoffs again (see Chiefs and Ravens).
They keep losing the turnover battle
The Bills have gone from plus-1 as they were last season to minus-2 so far. They have only five takeaways in relation to seven giveaways. Allen's turnovers almost cost them in Week 3 against the Chargers and sealed their fate in Week 4 vs. the Patriots.
Allen can still be sloppy with the ball despite his newfound efficiency (see the AFC divisional playoff loss to the Broncos). He needs be consistently protective of the ball in big games against tougher competition for him to break through with his first Super Bowl.
Joe Brady shows too much of his inexperience
The Bills promoted Brady from OC hoping to create a youthful spark with a 37-year-old rising star to shake off the disappointments under Sean McDermott. Being on the job for a short time didn't hurt Mike Macdonald in Seattle, but he was in his second season when he won the Super Bowl vs. Brady being a rookie in Buffalo.
Brady is an exceptional offensive play-caller, but now he needs to make tougher overall decisions. His youth also is a motivational asset, but he also must work on learning from the little mistakes the team has made in the past that cost it big.
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Why the Rams will play in Super Bowl 61
They maintain the league's best passing game
The Rams, now with Puka Nacua back to help Davante Adams at wide receiver and their depth at tight end and running backs, can throw the ball well anywhere with Stafford executing for McVay. Nacua's big-play element returns to help Adams all the way through the latter's career prowess in the red zone. Stafford's arm remains a cannon but he's become a steadier distributor in the short-to-intermediate passing game.
Even with a slow start in games, the Rams' aerial attack can be tough to spot once Stafford gets into a rhythm.
They keep up the dominant pass defense
Even without a healthy Myles Garrett and now Aaron Donald ailing up front, the Rams are only behind the Seahawks with the NFL's No. 2 pass defense, allowing on average 145.5 yards per game. They are also No. 1 in allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt, only 4.8. Quarterbacks have rated only 75.4 against them, the third-lowest mark in the league.
They go back to being healthier all-around
Not having Nacua (core muscle) early and then losing Garrett to his knee injury were tough early obstacles. Now Donald (back) is hurting in his comeback. Tight ends Colby Parkinson (knee) and Terrance Ferguson (knee) are injured now too and so is starting cornerback Jaylen Watson.
McVay does well to keep his players healthy with limited practice work during the week. But that doesn't mean all notable injuries are avoidable. The Rams need to manage a lot and will need to keep doing so until they are back at their healthiest around playoff time.
Why the Rams won't play in Super Bowl 61
Matthew Stafford doesn't address the turnover issues
Stafford has thrown six interceptions, tied for second-highest in the league with Justin Herbert, second only to Drake Maye. Although he did get away with a league-leading 17 ahead of the Super Bowl 56-winning run, including a bang-bang call in the playoffs against the 49ers, the Rams don't want to go there again.
He reduced his INTs down to eight the previous two seasons and is already three-quarters of the way to that total. The Rams have had eight total giveaways to only three takeaways, putting them at a shaky minus-5 in turnover margin. Continuing at that rate won't cut it.
The defense doesn't recover well from injuries
The Rams are hopeful Garrett and Donald can provide the 1-2 punch as expected for their defensive front, but they have yet to play together in a game. Although they are doing well vs. pass and run without Garrett, they will need him to be healthy enough to provide impact during the second-half meat of the schedule through the playoffs.
Los Angeles should be concerned about losing more from its limited pass rush and the depth everywhere should more injuries occur to affect the back seven.
They have too many lapses in run defense
The Rams by the numbers have been strong against the run. They are tied with the Seahawks at No. 11 in the league, giving up on average 102.0 yards per game. They also are No. 12 in allowing on average 4.0 yards per attempt.
But in their first four games, after getting gashed by Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers in Week 1, got breaks in Week 2 (going up big on the Giants), Week 3 (facing the Broncos' bad running game) and Week 4 (mostly Saquon Barkley-less Eagles). The Bills' running game will be a ramp back up to the 49ers' level of prowess.
The Rams need to show they can slow down the league's best running teams or they will be run out of the playoffs early.