Numbers Never Lie: 4 notable Chiefs stats to know through three weeks
· Yahoo Sports
Numbers never lie, right?
There are so many statistics to parse through during the NFL season that some can be misleading. After each game, it’s a good exercise to review NFL “Next Gen Stats” and “Premium Stats” from Pro Football Focus and find the numbers that paint a picture not only of the game, but of what to expect from the Kansas City Chiefs moving forward.
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Here are four season-long statistics after three games and what they could mean for the rest of the season:
1. Under pressure, Patrick Mahomes is averaging 10.9 yards per pass attempt
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has generated 9.7 Expected Points Added (EPA) over the 28 dropbacks he has been under pressure so far this season, according to Next Gen Stats. He leads all NFL players in yards per pass attempt and EPA when under pressure; here’s the remainder of the top 5:
- 2. Josh Allen: 9.6 yards per attempt, -0.8 EPA
- 3. Tyler Shough: 9.1 yards per attempt, -16 EPA
- 4. Geno Smith: 9 yards per attempt, -2.8 EPA
- 5. Jared Goff: 8.2 yards per attempt, -5.5 EPA
Whether it’s the eye test or the advanced metrics, it’s clear that Mahomes is dealing so far this year. Both of his interceptions look more like mistiming or miscommunication with a wideout than putting the ball in harm’s way. Mahomes threw the Week 3 interception behind wide receiver Rashee Rice, but the Miami Dolphins made a spectacular play to force the turnover.
Regardless, Mahomes has been locked in, whether it’s within the scheme or outside of it due to pressure. Kansas City’s coaching staff needs to limit the times he is pressured moving forward, but he’s playing well enough to make it work regardless.
2. Two Chiefs are in the Top 10 for yards after catch
Head coach Andy Reid gets a lot of credit for an offense that produces as many yards after catch as any NFL offense in modern history, but this year’s improved run game has a lot to do with tight end Travis Kelce (156 yards) and wide receiver Rashee Rice (120 yards) ranking first and eighth among all NFL players in yards after catch through three weeks.
Kelce and Rice excel at finding soft spots in zone coverage, the primary defensive strategy on early downs when anticipating the run. You’ve seen the Chiefs’ offense use play action and misdirection to maximize the open throwing windows downfield to these two, but the individual players deserve credit for making the most of it with their different abilities to get upfield after the ball’s in their hands.
3. L’Jarius Sneed is allowing an 80% completion rate in coverage
According to PFF, Sneed has been targeted 25 times in coverage this year while playing in the slot most of the time (98 of 148 snaps). He has been faulted on 20 catches totaling 195 yards, with 116 yards coming after the catch. Quarterbacks are generating a passer rating of 112.5 when throwing at Sneed. He has also drawn three penalties.
He is one of the only soft spots in what has been a sound Chiefs coverage unit…
4. The Chiefs’ defense is the third-best in the NFL by EPA per pass play
Only the Jacksonville Jaguars (-0.27) and the Chicago Bears (-0.23) have outperformed the Chiefs’ defense (-0.21) so far in allowing the fewest EPA per pass play.
The Chiefs are allowing just 5.4 yards per pass play, the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL. The team’s pressure definitely needs to step it up — Kansas City has the seventh-lowest sack rate (3.7%) in the league — but the Chiefs’ outside cornerbacks have looked sound in coverage when healthy. Rookie Mansoor Delane and second-year corner Nohl Williams will only get better as the season continues.