Week 4 NFL picks against the spread, predictions for every game: Raiders ready for their biggest game in Las Vegas vs. Chiefs

· Yahoo Sports

When Patrick Mahomes starts at quarterback, the Kansas City Chiefs are 13-2 against the Las Vegas Raiders. But the Raiders have changed.

It's hard to get used to the idea of the Raiders being good. They've been bad for so long, that it's strange to think of them any other way, unless you're still watching old clips of Ken Stabler or Marcus Allen. However, there is no evidence that their 3-0 start isn't legit. Even if there was some trepidation about getting behind the Raiders' 2-0 start, a 35-27 comeback win at New Orleans was pretty good.

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The Raiders are ninth in DVOA, ranking 13th in offense, ninth in defense and fifth in special teams. They're 15th in EPA per play on offense and second in EPA per play allowed. There's a new coaching staff, the roster has been remade, and the early results are impressive.

The Chiefs are good too, of course. Any worry about Patrick Mahomes being rusty coming off ACL surgery have faded away during a 3-0 start. The Chiefs aren't going anywhere.

But this is the biggest game the Raiders have had since moving to Las Vegas. Not that the Chiefs won't be ready, but this should have a playoff feel at Allegiant Stadium. It has been a long time since the Raiders could feel this confident in what they're building. Las Vegas is a sound football team and even if they lose to a strong Chiefs team, it seems unlikely they'll be blown out. Raiders +4.5 is the pick. It's time to find out how good they might be this season.

Brock Bowers leads the Las Vegas Raiders into a huge game against the Chiefs. (Photo by Morgan Simmons/Getty Images)Morgan Simmons via Getty Images

Here are the rest of the picks against the spread for Week 4 of the NFL season:

These are two flawed 2-1 teams. The Steelers had one offensive touchdown through two weeks before a good game against the Bengals last week. The Browns are 31st in the NFL in EPA per rushing play and Deshaun Watson is averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game. But someone is going to be 3-1 unless there's a tie, which might be fitting. Cleveland is at home on a short week getting a field goal, and they're somehow 11-1 in home Thursday night games according to longtime Browns reporter Tony Grossi. They're the tepid pick.

The NFL's early Sunday window opens. Set your alarm for the first 9:30 a.m. Eastern start of the year, from London. There should be plenty of scoring in this one. The Colts had the worst defense in the NFL through two weeks (though it played well last week vs. Houston) and the Commanders are 31st in the NFL in points allowed. London games are usually a bit odd, the Commanders can score even with Marcus Mariota at QB if Jayden Daniels doesn't return, and I'll take the points.

Rams (-3) over Eagles

The Eagles are 2-1 but Monday night exposed them. They were dominated by the Bears. The first two games, they barely beat Washington and Tennessee, and now those middling performances look even worse after they got blasted in Chicago. We can say the Rams are 1-2, but are probably a bad defensive pass interference call away from being 2-1 with the one loss being the weird game in Australia. I have much more faith in them than Philadelphia.

It is frightening to pick an 0-3 Buccaneers team with an undrafted rookie quarterback. But teams this season who are starting a QB other than their Week 1 starter are 6-0 this season according to Josh Dubow of Associated Press. And it's very hard to pick the Packers as a road favorite. They have been awful this season. Can Bucs rookie QB Jalon Daniels just do enough to keep the Bucs close? We'll find out.

Bears (-3.5) over Jets

Maybe what we saw Monday night was the typical bump a team can get from its first game with a backup quarterback. But the Bears looked good with Case Keenum, and it's fair to credit Ben Johnson's coaching for that. The Jets could be without Breece Hall, Mason Taylor and Adonai Mitchell, three key skill-position players. New York hasn't been that bad, but here's a pick for the coaching matchup.

The Patriots are another team that is hard to pick. They look bad. This also feels like a playoff game for them, even though it's only Week 4. If they fall to 1-3, three games behind the Bills, the chances of winning the division get very slim. If the Patriots have any hope at all of being a factor this season, you'll see it on Sunday.

It's possible Jacksonville is the team we're not talking about enough. The Jaguars had one bad half against the Broncos. In the other five halves this season, the Jaguars have outscored their three opponents 79-19. The Bengals have looked pretty good to start the season as well, though a defensive letdown last week was disappointing. We might start talking more about the Jaguars after Week 4.

It's hard to come up with a logical argument for the Titans, but bad teams cover the spread often in the NFL. If you play survivor, you understand this. Also, the Ravens are coming straight off a trip to Brazil. The Titans need any edge they can get.

Texans (-2.5) over Cowboys

I refuse to give up on the Texans. It looks like they'll have Nico Collins back this week, which the offense desperately needs. Also, like the Ravens, the Cowboys are coming straight back from Brazil, and unlike Baltimore they're playing on the road. The Cowboys also had a miserable loss last week that will be hard to shake off. This is the last time we're picking Houston if it loses this week. Maybe. We'll see.

Arizona has been pretty good. Still, it's surprising to see the Cardinals as a road favorite. We know why. The Giants offense isn't going to be fun to watch with Jameis Winston (spoiler alert: It's unlikely to be any better with J.J. McCarthy, if and when he gets his shot). But this line seems very disrespectful to a 2-1 Giants team that will play hard and is well coached. Also, it's a team coming west to play one of those early East Coast starts.

Vikings (-10.5) over Dolphins

The Dolphins will cover a spread this season. Nobody goes 0-17 against the spread. I'm not sure it's this week though. The matchup of Brian Flores' Vikings defense against a Dolphins offense now without De'Von Achane seems treacherous. If Justin Jefferson doesn't play that does give the Dolphins a shot to keep it close. But it's too hard to take Miami right now.

49ers (-2.5) over Broncos

Are the 49ers the product of an easy schedule? Perhaps to some extent. The Rams had jet lag and the Dolphins and Cardinals aren't very good. But the 49ers have handled business and Brock Purdy is red hot. They've played better than every other team so far this season. The Broncos aren't a bad team but the first halves (they've been a no-show in the first half for all three games) is a real problem. I'll go with the NFL's hottest team and hope they take on no more injuries before kickoff.

The last time Jim Harbaugh had a losing season, not counting a truncated 2020 season, was 2008 at Stanford. This season could break that streak though. The Chargers have been legitimately awful. Even a +4 turnover margin at Buffalo didn't lead to a win, or even covering a 7-point spread. And now they get a Seattle team coming off a loss. But there's no way the Chargers can be this bad all season. Right?

Lions (-3.5) over Panthers

The Lions will score points. That seems like a safe prediction. The Panthers have played one decent offense this season and gave up 59 points to Chicago. This week they put both starting cornerbacks, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, on injured reserve. Detroit is going to move the ball. Carolina can too. The Lions' defense is bad. But the Panthers' offensive line injuries are piling up. They're without both tackles and guard Damien Lewis is set to miss time too, which helps the Lions. It's hard to trust Detroit's defense, but I think the Lions might score at will.

Saints (-2.5) over Falcons

This isn't the best Monday night game but it is interesting. Are the Falcons suddenly good now that they have competent quarterback play from Michael Penix Jr.? What do we make of the Saints? They are 1-2 but also won at Baltimore and nearly won at Detroit. I believe the Saints are the best team in that division, and what we saw from the Falcons in Week 3 says more about the Packers than Atlanta.

Last week: 5-11

Season to date: 19-29

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